PM Intel

Read memory/MEMORY.md for context.
Read memory/topics/prediction-markets.md if it exists for prior competitive notes and the operator's watched platforms.
Read the last 3 days of memory/logs/ to avoid repeating recent coverage.

Voice

If soul/SOUL.md and soul/STYLE.md are populated, read both and match the operator's voice. If empty or absent, use a clear, direct, neutral tone — concrete nouns over abstractions, no hedging, no corporate fluff.

Configuration

The set of tracked platforms is operator-configurable. Read memory/topics/prediction-markets.md for a list of platforms to watch — one platform name per line under a ## Platforms heading. If the file does not exist or has no ## Platforms section, default to a baseline of Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Manifold, Futuur. Note in the report that the default list was used.

Steps

1. Gather product-level news on tracked platforms

For each platform in the configured list, run a WebSearch:

WebSearch: "<platform>" new feature OR product OR launch ${year}

Also run general-ecosystem searches in parallel:

• "prediction market" protocol OR startup OR launch ${year}
• "coordination market" OR "reflexive market" crypto ${year}

For the top two platforms by stated priority (or, lacking priority info, Polymarket and Kalshi), also WebFetch their homepages and scan for new market categories, product copy changes, or new sections:

• https://polymarket.com
• https://kalshi.com

2. Regulatory and legal developments

• WebSearch: prediction market CFTC OR SEC OR regulation ${year}
• WebSearch: Kalshi legal OR CFTC ruling ${year}
• WebSearch: prediction market legislation Congress ${year}

Note rulings, approvals, or pending cases that affect the PM legal environment.

3. New entrants and funding

• WebSearch: prediction market startup funding seed OR Series ${year}
• WebSearch: coordination market OR "reflexive market" startup launch ${year}

For each new entrant: what do they do, who funded them, how do they differ from the incumbents?

4. Oracle and mechanism changes

• WebSearch: Polymarket oracle UMA resolution dispute ${year}
• WebSearch: prediction market AMM OR LMSR OR mechanism ${year}

Any architectural changes to how markets are created, resolved, or liquidity provided?

5. Synthesize

Ask, neutrally:

• Product gap: What are the incumbents still not doing that a new entrant could?
• Threat / opportunity: Is anyone new entering the space?
• Regulatory window: Is the environment opening or closing for permissionless PM creation?
• Oracle / infra: Any changes to the resolution layer that affect mechanism design options?

If the operator's soul/SOUL.md defines a thesis or angle, apply it here in a single labelled paragraph. Otherwise, write a neutral one-paragraph synthesis of the week's signal.

6. Format the intel briefing

PM Intel — ${today}

PLATFORMS
- <platform>: [product update or notable development]
- <platform>: [product update or regulatory win/loss]

NEW ENTRANTS
- [name] — [what they do, funding if known]

REGULATION
- [key development]

ORACLE / MECHANISM
- [any notable change]

SYNTHESIS
[one opinionated paragraph — gap, threat, regulatory window, or "all quiet"]

Keep under 3500 chars.

7. Send via ./notify -f

TEMP=$(mktemp -t pm-intel.XXXXXX.md)
cat > "$TEMP" <<'MSG'
<formatted intel from step 6>
MSG
./notify -f "$TEMP"

8. Update memory

If any development changes the competitive landscape materially, update memory/topics/prediction-markets.md — add a note in a ## Competitive Intel section or update an existing entry. Create the file with a ## Platforms and ## Competitive Intel section if it does not yet exist.

Append to memory/logs/${today}.md:

## PM Intel
- **Platforms covered:** [list]
- **Top item:** [one-line summary]
- **New entrants:** [names or "none"]
- **Regulation:** [key development or "quiet"]
- **Notification sent:** yes
- PM_INTEL_OK

Guidelines

• This is product-level competitive intelligence, not market position tracking. Skip individual market prices — that's monitor-polymarket's job.
• Focus on what platforms are shipping, who's entering, how regulation and mechanism design are shifting.
• One opinionated synthesis paragraph beats five neutral bullets.
• Quiet weeks are useful signal — say so explicitly.

Sandbox note

Uses WebSearch and WebFetch (Claude built-in tools) — bypasses the GitHub Actions sandbox network gate. No curl, no auth needed. Notification uses ./notify -f.