Trump Truth Social Catalyst Lens

A reusable lens for turning Donald Trump's public Truth Social posts,
@realDonaldTrump X posts, and his own disclosed stock holdings into a
short list of US stocks/sectors likely to move, with an honest read on how
reliably each pattern actually pumps a stock. Built to be paired with a periodic
timer that re-fetches and re-scores, accumulating a real hit-rate over time.

Decision-support lens, NOT financial advice and NOT an auto-trader. This
only analyzes publicly available posts and public financial disclosures to
anticipate market reactions. It never places, cancels, or sizes orders. Always
confirm current price/news yourself — these moves are fast, often fade, and
several are pump-and-fade traps (see references/track-record.md).

STEP 0 — ALWAYS REFRESH FIRST (this skill is useless on stale data)

Two things go stale: the skill itself (the ledger / holdings / calibration in
references/ are grown by a periodic timer and pushed to GitHub) and the posts
(Trump posts many times a day; a market-moving one can be minutes old, and there
is no local post archive). Refresh both, in order, before doing anything else:

# 0a. Pull the latest version of this skill (updated ledger, holdings, calibration).
#     Best-effort: auto-detects project vs global scope. If it fails, keep going.
skills update trump-truthsocial-catalyst -y

# 0b. Fetch the latest Truth Social posts: text + timestamps + permalinks.
#     trumpstruth.org is a third-party archive; the official truthsocial.com API is
#     Cloudflare-blocked from servers, so use this RSS.
curl -sS -A "Mozilla/5.0" "https://trumpstruth.org/feed" -o /tmp/trump_feed.xml

# 0c. Fetch the latest @realDonaldTrump X posts when xreach is available.
#     X is a supplemental official public channel; many posts are video/link-only,
#     so resolve context before scoring.
xreach tweets @realdonaldtrump -n 40 --json > /tmp/trump_x.json

Then re-read the refreshed references/*.md (don't rely on a copy you read
before 0a) and parse the newest posts (see references/methodology.md for ready
parsers). If 0a fails, proceed on the cached skill but note it may be stale; if a
source fails (offline / 403 / site down), say so explicitly and use the other
source plus whatever the user pasted — never pretend you have fresh data.

What this lens is for

Trump's posts move stocks through a few repeatable mechanisms: he names a
company favorably, announces or hints at policy he controls (tariffs,
contracts, executive orders), or champions a theme (crypto, energy, AI
infrastructure, defense, reshoring). The edge is recognizing which features of
a post reliably pump a stock versus which produce a one-day spike that fades —
and cross-referencing against what he personally owns, because "he owns it →
he boosts it → a government tailwind follows" is his single most repeatable
money-making pattern (the Dell playbook).

This is explicitly a short-horizon catalyst lens, not a fundamentals lens. The
biggest caveat in the whole skill: his posts can pump a stock that is a
terrible long-term hold — his own DJT is down ~77% from its 2024 high and his
memecoins are down 97–99%, yet they still spike when he posts. Separate "will it
pop this week" from "is it a good investment."

How the reference files are organized

Read progressively — pull in only what the task needs.

Workflows

(a) Read one post (or a batch) for tradable signals

1. Refresh (Step 0). Identify the newest Truth Social and X posts; dedupe
   against anything already in references/track-record.md by source id and
   cross-source normalized text/time.
2. For each post, run the classification checklist in
   references/methodology.md: is it market-relevant? Which Tier (1 named-stock /
   2 policy-sector / 3 macro)? Which amplifier features are present (named public
   company, explicit "BUY", policy he controls, he personally owns it, posted
   intraday, repeated)?
3. Map topic → candidate tickers via references/theme-ticker-map.md, and check
   references/holdings-watchlist.md for an ownership overlap (raises conviction).
4. Output, per signal: the post (date + permalink), the implicated ticker(s),
   direction, a reliability tier, expected magnitude & durability
   (intraday-fade vs. can-hold), and what would invalidate it.
5. Weight using references/track-record.md — favor patterns with a real
   accumulated hit-rate over plausible-sounding one-offs. Always frame as
   analysis, never as an order.

(b) Build / refresh a Trump-catalyst watchlist

1. Pull his disclosed holdings from references/holdings-watchlist.md. If the
   question depends on freshness, check the OGE source listed there for newer
   Trump, Donald J 278-T PDFs before treating the watchlist as current.
2. Bucket: already popped (Dell-style, catalyst spent) vs. owns-but-quiet
   (breakout candidates if the Dell template repeats: ownership + an admin
   tailwind like a contract, tariff carve-out, or public praise).
3. For each quiet name, note the specific catalyst that would trigger it and a
   rough 1–2 month watch window. Keep it advisory.

(c) Judge a single "will this pump X?" question

1. Refresh, find the relevant post(s).
2. Score the pattern against references/methodology.md tiers + amplifiers and
   the historical analogs in references/track-record.md.
3. Give a calibrated answer: likely direction, reliability, magnitude,
   durability, and the honest base-rate (e.g., "named-company endorsements pop
   reliably intraday; crypto-reserve posts spike then fade next day").

Risk & disclaimer framing (state this when giving any view)

• Short-horizon catalyst, not a thesis. A pop is not a reason to hold. His
  own assets (DJT, $TRUMP, $MELANIA) show posts can pump structurally weak names.
• Many signals fade fast. Crypto-reserve and tariff-relief posts often spike
  for a day and give it back; size and timing matter, and this skill does not set
  either — the user does.
• Conflict-of-interest is a feature of the data, not an endorsement. He has
  bought stocks (Dell, Palantir, Nvidia, media names) that his administration
  then affected. We note the overlap as a signal, while flagging the obvious
  manipulation/legal scrutiny around it. Do not act illegally on it.
• Disclosures are ranges and self-reported. Holding figures come from OGE
  periodic transaction reports (dollar ranges, not exact amounts) and may lag.
• This is a lens, not a signal feed. It surfaces better questions about a
  Trump headline. It is NOT auto-trading, NOT a recommendation, NOT financial
  advice. Every order is the reader's own manual, confirmed decision.