Cynefin Analysis

Analyze a situation through the Cynefin framework to understand what type of problem it is and choose the appropriate response.

Instructions

Determine which Cynefin domain the problem belongs to, then apply the appropriate response approach. Be willing to recognize that parts of a problem may span multiple domains.

Output Format

Situation: [What we're analyzing]

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Initial Assessment

Characteristics Check

Characteristic	Yes/No/Maybe	Evidence
Cause and effect are clear and predictable
Experts can analyze and determine the answer
Outcomes can only be understood in hindsight
The situation is unstable/in crisis
We genuinely don't know what kind of problem this is

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Domain Classification

Primary Domain: [Simple/Complicated/Complex/Chaotic/Confused]

Why this domain?
[Reasoning for the classification]

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Domain-Appropriate Response

If SIMPLE/OBVIOUS

Sense → Categorize → Respond

Best Practice to Apply: [The established approach]

If COMPLICATED

Sense → Analyze → Respond

Experts Needed: [Who has the expertise?]
Analysis Required: [What to investigate?]

If COMPLEX

Probe → Sense → Respond

Safe-to-Fail Experiments:

Probe	What We'd Learn	Amplify if...	Dampen if...
[experiment]	[insight]	[success indicators]	[failure indicators]

Key Mindset: Don't try to predict. Try things, observe, adapt.

If CHAOTIC

Act → Sense → Respond

Immediate Stabilization: [What action do we take right now?]

If CONFUSED

Break down, then categorize

Sub-problem	Likely Domain	Why
[sub-problem]	[domain]	[reasoning]

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Boundary Warnings

Transition	Warning Signs	What to Do
Simple → Chaotic	Complacency	Challenge assumptions
Complicated → Complex	Analysis not converging	Try probes instead
Complex → Chaotic	Loss of control	Stabilize fast

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Recommended Approach

Given this is a [DOMAIN] problem, we should:

1. [Primary approach]
2. [Supporting action]

Guidelines

• Most people default to Complicated (analysis) when Complex (probes) is needed
• "Best practice" is only valid in Simple domain
• In Complex, you can't predict—you can only experiment and adapt
• In Chaotic, act first, think later

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