PegWatch — tokenized-stock reality check on Mantle

PegWatch compares every xStocks tokenized equity deployed on Mantle (chain id 5000) to its
real-world reference price, and reports premium/discount, broken pegs, arbitrage windows, and
off-hours drift. The core uses no API key.

When to use this skill

• "Does TSLAx / NVDAx / SPCXx on Mantle track the real stock right now?"
• "Find me mispriced tokenized stocks on Mantle / any arbitrage windows."
• "How many of Mantle's tokenized stocks are actually liquid?"
• "Is the SpaceX (SPCXx) token holding its peg?"

How it works

1. Pulls the universe of xStocks on Mantle (xStocks public API).
2. Gets each token's on-chain DEX price (DefiLlama coins) and reference NAV (xStocks).
3. Computes premium = (onchain - nav) / nav, classifies each token
   (blue_chip / mid / broken), and flags peg_break (>3%), thin_liquidity,
   and off_hours_drift (deviation while US market is closed).
4. Writes a JSON snapshot, a markdown report, and an X-post draft.

How to run

From the repository root (the directory containing the pegwatch/ package):

python -m pegwatch.agent            # focus list (14 liquid names), ~40s
python -m pegwatch.agent --full     # all ~157 Mantle xStocks, ~3min
python -m pegwatch.agent --brain    # + LLM interpretation (needs OPENAI_API_KEY)

Outputs land in pegwatch/reports/latest.md (human report) and
pegwatch/data/snapshots/<timestamp>.json (raw data; accumulates a 24/7 drift dataset).

How to read the output

• tier blue_chip — pegs within ±0.5% at deep liquidity: behaves like the real stock.
• tier broken — |premium| ≥ 3% or thin pricing: do not treat as a clean arb until volume
  is confirmed (an extreme premium, e.g. >10%, usually means a near-dead pool with a stale price).
• flag off_hours_drift — the deviation appeared while US markets were closed; compare during
  the regular session (9:30–16:00 ET) for an apples-to-apples read.
• Pair any "arbitrage" claim with on-chain volume (Dune dex.trades on Mantle) before acting.

Identity

This skill's agent can carry an on-chain ERC-8004 identity on Mantle (Identity Registry
0x8004A169FB4a3325136EB29fA0ceB6D2e539a432) so its research calls leave an auditable
reputation trail. See pegwatch/onchain/mint_identity.py.