Tokenomics Evaluation

When to use this skill

Use when the user asks about:

• Evaluating a token's economic model
• Understanding token supply and emission schedules
• Assessing whether tokenomics support long-term value
• Comparing tokenomics across competing projects
• Identifying tokenomics red flags before investing

Evaluation Framework

1. Supply Structure

Map the complete supply picture:

• Max supply: Is there a hard cap or infinite supply?
• Total supply: All tokens created to date
• Circulating supply: Tokens currently in the market
• Supply ratio: Circulating / Total — low ratio means significant future dilution
• Emission schedule: Plot supply over 1, 2, 5 years
• Inflation rate: Annual percentage increase in circulating supply
• Burn mechanisms: Any deflationary counters to emissions?

2. Distribution Analysis

Assess how tokens are allocated:

Category	Percentage	Vesting	Concern Level
Team	X%	Y months cliff + Z vest	Normal: 15-20%
Investors (seed/private)	X%	Y months cliff + Z vest	Normal: 15-25%
Community/Ecosystem	X%	Ongoing distribution	Normal: 30-50%
Treasury	X%	Governance-controlled	Normal: 10-20%
Public sale	X%	Usually unlocked	Normal: 5-15%

Red flags:

• Team + investors > 50% of total supply
• Short vesting (< 12 months cliff)
• Large immediate unlock events approaching
• Single wallet holding > 10% of circulating supply (non-exchange)

3. Vesting and Unlock Schedule

Create a timeline of major unlock events:

• Past unlocks: How has the market reacted to previous unlocks?
• Upcoming unlocks: Next 3, 6, 12 months — amounts and recipients
• Cliff events: Large one-time unlocks vs gradual linear vesting
• Sell pressure estimation: Assume 20-50% of unlocked investor tokens get sold within 30 days
• Critical dates: Flag any unlock representing > 5% of circulating supply

4. Token Utility Assessment

Evaluate what the token actually does:

• Governance: Does holding grant meaningful voting power?
• Fee payment: Is the token required for protocol usage? Or optional?
• Staking: What incentive exists to stake? Staking rate?
• Collateral: Can it be used as collateral in DeFi?
• Access/membership: Does it unlock features or tiers?
• Utility depth score: How many genuine use cases generate organic demand?

5. Value Accrual Analysis

Determine how protocol success translates to token value:

• Revenue to holders: Fee-sharing, buyback-and-burn, or ve-model?
• Revenue data: Actual protocol revenue (30d, 90d, annualized)
• P/E or P/S ratio: Market cap / annualized revenue — compare to peers
• Token sink strength: How much net buying pressure does the mechanism create?
• Reflexivity risk: Does the token's value depend on its own price? (circular incentives)

6. Comparative Tokenomics

Compare against category peers:

Metric	This Token	Peer A	Peer B
FDV / Market Cap ratio
Annual inflation
Staking yield
Revenue / FDV
Team allocation
Community allocation

7. Tokenomics Scoring

Rate each dimension on a 1-5 scale:

• Supply design: Predictable, capped, with healthy emission curve
• Distribution fairness: Wide distribution, reasonable team allocation
• Utility strength: Multiple genuine use cases driving demand
• Value accrual: Clear path from protocol revenue to token value
• Vesting structure: Long cliffs, gradual unlock, aligned incentives

8. Output Format

• Token: Name, ticker, chain
• Tokenomics grade: A / B / C / D / F
• Key strength: Single best aspect of the tokenomics
• Key risk: Single biggest tokenomics concern
• Upcoming catalysts: Unlock events or tokenomics changes in next 90 days
• Inflation outlook: Current and projected annual inflation
• Value accrual: Strong / Moderate / Weak / None
• Verdict: Tokenomics support investment / Neutral / Tokenomics are a headwind