Lean UX Sub-Skill

Version: 1.2.0
Framework: Jerry User-Experience -- Lean UX
Constitutional Compliance: Jerry Constitution v1.0
Parent Skill: /user-experience (skills/user-experience/SKILL.md)
Wave: 2 (Data-Ready)
Project: PROJ-022 User Experience Skill | GitHub Issue #138

Document Sections

Section	Purpose
Document Audience	Triple-Lens audience guide
Purpose	Sub-skill overview and key capabilities
When to Use This Sub-Skill	Activation triggers and scope boundaries
Available Agents	Single agent with role, model, and output location
P-003 Compliance	Worker agent hierarchy position
Invoking the Agent	Invocation via ux-orchestrator
Methodology	Lean UX Build-Measure-Learn cycles, hypothesis format, ICE prioritization, assumption mapping, experiment types with selection guide
MCP Dependencies	Miro REQ with text-based fallback; Figma ENH; Context7 for Lean UX docs
Output Specification	Output location, L0/L1/L2 structure, required sections
Routing	Keywords and lifecycle-stage routing integration
Cross-Framework Integration	Handoff from Design Sprint and to HEART Metrics
Synthesis Hypothesis Confidence	Confidence classifications for Lean UX outputs
Constitutional Compliance	Governing principles and AI-augmented analysis limitations
Registration	H-26 parent-routed registration model and AGENTS.md confirmation
Deployment Status	Wave 2 stub agent status and implementation timeline
Quick Reference	Common workflows and agent selection hints
References	Full repo-relative paths, requirements traceability, external citations

Document Audience (Triple-Lens)

This SKILL.md serves multiple audiences:

Level	Audience	Sections to Focus On
L0 (Stakeholder)	Product managers, designers	Purpose, When to Use This Sub-Skill, Quick Reference
L1 (Developer)	Engineers invoking the agent	Invoking the Agent, Methodology, Output Specification
L2 (Architect)	Workflow designers, skill maintainers	Cross-Framework Integration, MCP Dependencies, Synthesis Hypothesis Confidence

---

Purpose

The Lean UX sub-skill provides structured, hypothesis-driven design facilitation using Jeff Gothelf and Josh Seiden's Lean UX methodology (3rd edition, 2021). It targets tiny teams (1-5 people) who need to move beyond opinion-based design decisions toward evidence-based iteration through Build-Measure-Learn cycles.

This sub-skill is part of Wave 2 (Data-Ready), meaning it requires Wave 1 completion (at least 1 heuristic evaluation completed AND 1 JTBD job statement used in a product decision) before deployment. It bridges the gap between design evaluation (Wave 1) and quantitative measurement (Wave 2: HEART Metrics) by providing a structured experimentation framework.

Key Capabilities

• Hypothesis-Driven Design -- Structures design decisions as testable hypotheses using the Lean UX format: "We believe [outcome] for [users] if [change] because [evidence]"
• Assumption Mapping -- Prioritizes unknowns using the 4-quadrant framework (Known/Unknown x High Risk/Low Risk) to focus experimentation on the highest-risk unknowns first
• MVP Experiment Design -- Designs minimum viable experiments (A/B tests, fake door tests, concierge MVP, Wizard of Oz, paper prototypes) with measurable success criteria
• Validated Learning Documentation -- Tracks hypothesis outcomes (confirmed/invalidated) with supporting evidence, building an organizational learning log
• Hypothesis Backlog Management -- Maintains a prioritized backlog of hypotheses with validation status, enabling systematic iteration across Build-Measure-Learn cycles
• Build-Measure-Learn Cycle Tracking -- Coordinates full cycles from hypothesis formulation through experiment execution to learning documentation

Source: Key capabilities derived from parent SKILL.md [skills/user-experience/SKILL.md § Key Capabilities] ("Lean UX Facilitation -- Hypothesis-driven build-measure-learn cycles (Wave 2)") and [skills/user-experience/SKILL.md § Available Agents] ("Lean UX hypothesis and experiment facilitation").

---

When to Use This Sub-Skill

Activate when:

• Designing or validating a hypothesis about a design change and its expected outcome
• Mapping and prioritizing assumptions about user behavior, value proposition, or implementation feasibility
• Designing an MVP experiment to test a specific hypothesis with measurable outcomes
• Documenting validated learning from completed experiments (hypothesis confirmed or invalidated)
• Managing a backlog of hypotheses through multiple Build-Measure-Learn iterations
• Iterating on an existing design during the "During design" lifecycle stage with a hypothesis-testing approach
• Transitioning from a Design Sprint (Wave 5) into structured iteration cycles

Do NOT use for:

• Evaluating an existing interface against usability heuristics -- use /ux-heuristic-eval (Nielsen's 10) instead. Lean UX focuses on forward-looking hypothesis testing, not backward-looking evaluation of existing designs.
• Measuring quantitative UX health metrics -- use /ux-heart-metrics (Google GSM) instead. Lean UX produces hypothesis validation status; HEART Metrics produces ongoing measurement baselines.
• Understanding user motivations and jobs -- use /ux-jtbd (Jobs-to-Be-Done) instead. Lean UX consumes job statements from JTBD; it does not perform user motivation research.
• Diagnosing why users fail to take a specific action -- use /ux-behavior-design (Fogg B=MAP) instead. Lean UX tests hypotheses about changes; behavior design diagnoses existing behavioral bottlenecks.
• Running a full rapid prototyping sprint -- use /ux-design-sprint (Design Sprint 2.0) instead. Lean UX operates on individual hypotheses; Design Sprint produces validated prototypes through a multi-day structured process.
• Accessibility compliance auditing -- use /ux-inclusive-design (WCAG 2.2) instead.
• Security-focused interface review -- use /eng-team instead.
• General research without UX hypothesis focus -- use /problem-solving instead.

Source: Routing logic derived from [skills/user-experience/SKILL.md § Lifecycle-Stage Routing] ("During design: Iterating on existing design -> /ux-lean-ux OR /ux-heuristic-eval") and [skills/user-experience/rules/ux-routing-rules.md § Stage Routing Table], [skills/user-experience/rules/ux-routing-rules.md § Common Intent Resolution].

---

Available Agents

Agent	Role	Tier	Mode	Model	Output Location
ux-lean-ux-facilitator	Lean UX hypothesis and experiment facilitation specialist	T3	Systematic	Sonnet	skills/ux-lean-ux/output/{engagement-id}/ux-lean-ux-facilitator-{topic-slug}.md

STUB: The agent definition file (skills/ux-lean-ux/agents/ux-lean-ux-facilitator.md) currently contains frontmatter, identity, purpose, and guardrails sections only. Full agent body implementation (<input>, <capabilities>, <methodology>, <output> sections) is pending Wave 2 completion of PROJ-022 EPIC-003. The SKILL.md specifies the methodology and output contract that the agent will implement.

Tool tier: T3 (External) = Read, Write, Edit, Glob, Grep + WebSearch, WebFetch + Context7 MCP. The T3 tier enables access to external Lean UX methodology documentation via Context7 and web search for A/B testing framework references. Bash is intentionally excluded; T3 tier does not require shell access for MCP operations. See agent-development-standards.md [Tool Security Tiers] for full tier definitions.

The agent produces output at three levels per AD-M-004:

• L0 (Executive Summary): Top hypotheses with validation status; key assumptions identified; experiment recommendations for stakeholders and cross-framework synthesis input.
• L1 (Technical Detail): Full hypothesis backlog with Lean UX format statements, assumption map, experiment designs with success criteria, and validated learning log.
• L2 (Strategic Implications): Organizational learning patterns, hypothesis failure rate analysis, experimentation maturity assessment, and iteration velocity recommendations.

Source: Agent specification from [skills/user-experience/SKILL.md § Available Agents] and ORCHESTRATION.yaml pipeline-wave2 phase-1 (artifact: skills/ux-lean-ux/agents/ux-lean-ux-facilitator.md).

---

P-003 Compliance

The /ux-lean-ux sub-skill contains a single worker agent. It is invoked by the ux-orchestrator (T5) via the Task tool. The agent does NOT have Task tool access and MUST NOT spawn sub-agents.

MAIN CONTEXT (user request)
    |
    v
ux-orchestrator (T5, Opus, Integrative) -- parent orchestrator
    |
    +-- ux-lean-ux-facilitator (T3, Systematic, Sonnet) -- THIS sub-skill's worker
    +-- [other sub-skill workers...]

Enforcement:

• disallowedTools: [Task] declared in skills/ux-lean-ux/agents/ux-lean-ux-facilitator.md frontmatter
• P-003 prohibition in skills/ux-lean-ux/agents/ux-lean-ux-facilitator.governance.yaml capabilities.forbidden_actions
• CI gate validates no sub-skill agent has Task access (documented in skills/user-experience/rules/ci-checks.md)

Source: P-003 hierarchy from parent SKILL.md [P-003 Compliance].

---

Invoking the Agent

This is a sub-skill invoked by the ux-orchestrator, not directly by users. Users interact with the parent /user-experience skill, which routes to this sub-skill based on lifecycle-stage triage.

Via Natural Language (to parent skill)

"Help me test whether this design change will improve conversion"
"Map our riskiest assumptions about the onboarding flow"
"Design an experiment to validate our checkout hypothesis"
"Document what we learned from the A/B test results"

The ux-orchestrator routes these requests to ux-lean-ux-facilitator based on [skills/user-experience/rules/ux-routing-rules.md § Stage Routing Table]. Specifically, the "During design: Iterating on existing design" stage qualifies with "Testing hypotheses" intent (source: [ux-routing-rules.md § Stage Routing Table]).

Via Explicit Agent Request (to parent skill)

"Use ux-lean-ux-facilitator to create a hypothesis backlog for the new pricing page"
"Have ux-lean-ux-facilitator design an experiment for the onboarding changes"

Via Task Tool (orchestrator internal)

The ux-orchestrator invokes the agent via the Task tool:

Task(
    description="ux-lean-ux-facilitator: Lean UX hypothesis cycle for checkout redesign",
    subagent_type="jerry:ux-lean-ux-facilitator",
    prompt="""
## UX CONTEXT (REQUIRED)
- **Engagement ID:** UX-0001
- **Topic:** Checkout Flow Hypothesis Cycle
- **Product:** [product name and domain]
- **Target Users:** [user description]
- **Input:** [design change description, prior research, prototype reference]

## TASK
Facilitate a Lean UX hypothesis cycle for the checkout flow redesign.
1. Create hypothesis statements in Lean UX format
2. Map assumptions using the 4-quadrant framework
3. Design MVP experiments with measurable success criteria
4. Document validated learning from any completed experiments

## MANDATORY PERSISTENCE (P-002)
Create file at: skills/ux-lean-ux/output/UX-0001/ux-lean-ux-facilitator-checkout-flow.md
"""
)

Governance codification (AD-M-007): The session_context contract (on_receive/on_send) is specified in ux-lean-ux-facilitator.governance.yaml per AD-M-007. Fields are enumerated below:

on_receive fields:

Field	Type	Required	Description
engagement_id	string	Yes	UX engagement identifier (format: UX-{NNNN})
product_context	string	Yes	Product name, domain, and target user description
design_change	string	Yes	Description of the design change or area under hypothesis testing
prior_experiment_results	array	No	Results from prior Build-Measure-Learn cycles (hypothesis ID, status, evidence)
upstream_artifacts	array	No	File paths to upstream handoff artifacts (JTBD findings, heuristic eval findings, Design Sprint outputs)

on_send fields:

Field	Type	Required	Description
hypothesis_backlog	array	Yes	Hypothesis entries with ID, Lean UX format statement, status, and ICE score
assumption_map	object	Yes	4-quadrant assumption map with quadrant assignments and movement tracking
experiment_designs	array	Yes	Per-hypothesis experiment designs with type, success criteria, and duration
validated_learning_log	array	Yes	Completed Build-Measure-Learn cycle entries with evidence and decisions
synthesis_judgments	array	Yes	AI judgment calls with confidence classification (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW) and rationale

Source: Invocation pattern from parent SKILL.md [Invoking an Agent].

---

Methodology

Lean UX Hypothesis Format

Every design decision is structured as a testable hypothesis using the canonical Lean UX format (Gothelf & Seiden, 2021):

We believe [outcome]
for [users]
if [change]
because [evidence/reasoning]

Component	Description	Example
Outcome	The measurable result we expect	"a 15% increase in checkout completion"
Users	The specific user segment affected	"first-time buyers on mobile"
Change	The design change being tested	"we simplify the checkout to a single page"
Evidence	The reasoning or prior data supporting the hypothesis	"our heuristic evaluation found 3 major navigation issues in the current multi-step flow"

Each hypothesis receives a unique ID (format: HYP-{NNN}) and tracks through the Build-Measure-Learn cycle with status: DRAFT, ACTIVE, VALIDATED, INVALIDATED, DEFERRED.

Hypothesis Prioritization (ICE Scoring)

Hypotheses in the backlog are prioritized using ICE scoring to determine which to test first:

Dimension	Question	Score Range
Impact	If validated, how much will this move the target outcome metric?	1 (minimal) - 10 (transformative)
Confidence	How confident are we that the hypothesis is correct, based on available evidence?	1 (pure guess) - 10 (strong prior evidence)
Ease	How easy is it to design and run an experiment to test this hypothesis?	1 (months of effort) - 10 (days of effort)

ICE score = (Impact + Confidence + Ease) / 3. Hypotheses with higher ICE scores are tested first. When ICE scores are tied, prefer the hypothesis in the higher-risk assumption quadrant (Q1 > Q2 > Q4 > Q3). ICE scoring is intentionally lightweight -- for tiny teams, a 30-second scoring pass per hypothesis is sufficient. Re-score after each Build-Measure-Learn cycle as evidence changes confidence levels.

Source: ICE scoring (Impact, Confidence, Ease) is a product prioritization framework originating from the growth hacking community (Sean Ellis, GrowthHackers, circa 2015). It is widely adopted in Lean UX contexts for lightweight hypothesis prioritization. Referenced in [skills/user-experience/rules/synthesis-validation.md § External Methodology Citations].

Assumption Mapping

Assumptions are prioritized using a 4-quadrant framework that maps risk against knowledge:

                    HIGH RISK
                       |
    +---------+--------+--------+---------+
    |         |                 |         |
    |  Q2:    |    Q1:          |         |
    |  Known  |    Unknown      |         |
    |  High   |    High Risk    |         |
    |  Risk   |    (TEST FIRST) |         |
    |         |                 |         |
KNOWN --------+--------+--------+-------- UNKNOWN
    |         |                 |         |
    |  Q3:    |    Q4:          |         |
    |  Known  |    Unknown      |         |
    |  Low    |    Low Risk     |         |
    |  Risk   |    (DEFER)      |         |
    |         |                 |         |
    +---------+--------+--------+---------+
                       |
                    LOW RISK

Quadrant	Name	Action	Priority
Q1	Unknown + High Risk	Test first -- these are the riskiest unknowns that could invalidate the entire approach	HIGHEST
Q2	Known + High Risk	Monitor -- validated but high-impact; revisit if conditions change	MEDIUM
Q3	Known + Low Risk	Accept -- validated and low-impact; no action needed	LOW
Q4	Unknown + Low Risk	Defer -- unknown but low-impact; test only if resources allow	LOWEST

Assumption categories: Assumptions are classified into three types per Lean UX methodology:

1. Value assumptions -- "Users want this outcome" (relates to JTBD job statements if available)
2. Usability assumptions -- "Users can accomplish this task" (relates to heuristic evaluation findings if available)
3. Feasibility assumptions -- "We can build this within constraints" (relates to technical implementation)

Source: Gothelf & Seiden (2021), Chapter 4: "Assumptions." Assumption mapping quadrant framework.

Experiment Types

The facilitator selects experiment types based on hypothesis characteristics, available resources, and desired confidence level:

Experiment Type	Description	Best For	Confidence Level	Duration	Cost
A/B Test	Controlled comparison of two variants with random user assignment	Quantitative outcome validation with sufficient traffic	HIGH	1-4 weeks	Medium
Fake Door Test	Feature entry point exists but feature is not built; measures interest via click-through	Demand validation before building	MEDIUM	1-2 weeks	Low
Concierge MVP	Human manually delivers the service the product would automate	Value validation for complex workflows	MEDIUM	2-4 weeks	Medium
Wizard of Oz	User interacts with what appears automated but is human-operated behind the scenes	Usability and value validation for AI/automation features	MEDIUM	1-2 weeks	Medium
Paper Prototype	Low-fidelity mockup tested with users in moderated sessions	Usability validation for early-stage concepts	LOW-MEDIUM	1-3 days	Low
Smoke Test	Landing page or signup form gauging interest before building	Market demand validation	MEDIUM	1-2 weeks	Low
One-Question Survey	Single focused question to existing users	Specific assumption validation	LOW	1-3 days	Low

Experiment selection criteria: The facilitator recommends an experiment type based on: (a) the assumption quadrant (Q1 assumptions need higher-confidence experiments), (b) the available user base (A/B tests require sufficient traffic), (c) the time and resource constraints of the team, and (d) the specificity of the hypothesis (broad hypotheses need exploratory experiments; narrow hypotheses need quantitative validation).

Experiment Type Selection Guide

Use this decision matrix to select the right experiment type for a given hypothesis:

If you need to...	Use experiment type	Time	Confidence	Minimum user base
Validate demand before building a feature	Fake door test	1-2 weeks	MEDIUM	Existing traffic to host page
Test a new workflow end-to-end with real users	Wizard of Oz	1-2 weeks	MEDIUM	5-10 participants
Prove users will pay for or use a complex service	Concierge MVP	2-4 weeks	MEDIUM	5-15 participants
Quantitatively compare two design variants	A/B test	1-4 weeks	HIGH	Sufficient traffic for statistical power
Validate usability of an early-stage concept	Paper prototype	1-3 days	LOW-MEDIUM	5 participants
Gauge market interest before investing effort	Smoke test	1-2 weeks	MEDIUM	Existing traffic or ad spend
Validate a single specific assumption quickly	One-question survey	1-3 days	LOW	Existing user base for distribution

Quick decision path: (1) If you have sufficient traffic and a narrow, measurable hypothesis, use an A/B test. (2) If the feature does not exist yet, use a fake door test or smoke test to validate demand first. (3) If the hypothesis involves a complex workflow, use Wizard of Oz or concierge MVP depending on whether you need to test usability (Wizard of Oz) or value (concierge). (4) If you are in early concept stage, start with a paper prototype. (5) If you need a fast answer to a single question, use a one-question survey.

Build-Measure-Learn Cycle

Each cycle follows the Lean UX iteration pattern:

Phase	Name	Activities	Output
1	Build	Select hypothesis from backlog; design minimum viable experiment; define success metrics and criteria	Experiment design document with hypothesis ID, experiment type, duration, sample size, success criteria
2	Measure	Execute experiment; collect data per success criteria; document observations	Raw experiment data, metric observations, qualitative notes
3	Learn	Analyze results against success criteria; classify hypothesis as VALIDATED or INVALIDATED; document learning; update assumption map	Validated learning entry with evidence, updated hypothesis status, updated assumption quadrant positions
4	Iterate	Based on learning: pivot (change approach), persevere (continue with validated direction), or kill (abandon invalidated direction)	Updated hypothesis backlog; new hypotheses if pivoting; archival of invalidated hypotheses

Cycle duration guidance: Lean UX emphasizes short cycles. For tiny teams (1-5 people), recommended cycle duration is 1-2 weeks. Cycles exceeding 4 weeks indicate the experiment scope is too large and should be decomposed into smaller hypotheses.

Validated Learning Log

Every completed Build-Measure-Learn cycle produces a validated learning entry:

### Learning L-{NNN}: {brief description}

- **Hypothesis:** HYP-{NNN} -- {hypothesis statement}
- **Experiment:** {experiment type} -- {experiment description}
- **Duration:** {start date} to {end date}
- **Success Criteria:** {what was measured and the threshold}
- **Result:** VALIDATED | INVALIDATED
- **Evidence:** {specific data, metrics, or observations supporting the result}
- **Decision:** PIVOT | PERSEVERE | KILL
- **Next Action:** {what changes based on this learning}

Source: Gothelf & Seiden (2021), Chapter 7: "MVPs and Experiments." Build-Measure-Learn cycle and experiment types.

---

MCP Dependencies

Dependency Matrix

MCP Tool	Classification	Purpose	Fallback
Miro	REQ	Collaborative assumption mapping boards, hypothesis backlog visualization, Build-Measure-Learn cycle tracking	Text-based exercise mode: assumption maps and hypothesis backlogs as structured markdown tables
Figma	ENH	Reference prototype artifacts in experiment designs; visual documentation of design changes being tested	Text description mode: design changes described textually; screenshot references where available
Hotjar (Bridge)	ENH	Access behavioral analytics data for experiment measurement (heatmaps, session recordings, funnel data)	Manual analytics input: user provides behavioral data via text description or exported reports
Context7	Available (current infrastructure)	Resolve and query Lean UX methodology documentation, A/B testing framework references	WebSearch fallback per MCP-001 (mcp-tool-standards.md [Error Handling])

Miro Fallback: Text-Based Exercise Mode

When the Miro MCP adapter is unavailable (current state -- adapter implementation is post-PROJ-022 scope), the facilitator operates in text-based exercise mode:

• Assumption maps are produced as structured markdown tables with quadrant assignments
• Hypothesis backlogs are maintained as markdown tables with status columns
• Build-Measure-Learn cycle tracking uses text-based status updates
• Limitations in text-based mode:
  • Cannot create or update collaborative visual boards
  • Cannot visualize assumption movement between quadrants over time
  • Cannot embed experiment results alongside visual hypothesis boards
• Output carries a degraded mode disclosure per P-022:

  [DEGRADED MODE] This output was produced without Miro MCP access.
  Input was provided via text-based exercise mode. Some features are reduced:
  - Cannot create or update collaborative visual boards
  - Cannot visualize assumption movement between quadrants over time
  - Cannot embed experiment results alongside visual hypothesis boards

Context7 Usage

Per MCP-001 (.context/rules/mcp-tool-standards.md [Context7 Integration]), Context7 is used when the facilitation references external Lean UX frameworks or experiment methodologies by name:

Library/Framework	Usage
Lean UX (Gothelf & Seiden)	Hypothesis format, assumption mapping methodology, Build-Measure-Learn cycle structure
A/B testing frameworks	Experiment design patterns, sample size calculations, statistical significance thresholds
Google Optimize / similar	A/B test configuration patterns and metric setup

Protocol: call mcp__context7__resolve-library-id with the framework name, then mcp__context7__query-docs with the resolved ID and specific query. If Context7 returns no results, fall back to WebSearch per mcp-tool-standards.md [Error Handling].

Source: MCP dependency matrix from [skills/user-experience/SKILL.md § MCP Integration Architecture] (/ux-lean-ux row showing Figma ENH, Miro REQ, Hotjar ENH) and [skills/user-experience/rules/mcp-coordination.md § MCP Dependency Matrix], [skills/user-experience/rules/mcp-coordination.md § Degraded Mode Behavior].

---

Output Specification

Output Location

skills/ux-lean-ux/output/{engagement-id}/ux-lean-ux-facilitator-{topic-slug}.md

Where:

• {engagement-id} follows the pattern UX-{NNNN} (e.g., UX-0001)
• {topic-slug} is a kebab-case descriptor of the hypothesis cycle topic (e.g., checkout-flow, onboarding-redesign)

Required Output Sections

Section	Level	Content
Executive Summary	L0	Top 3-5 hypotheses with validation status; highest-risk assumptions; experiment recommendations for stakeholders and cross-framework synthesis input
Engagement Context	L1	Product description, target users, design change under consideration, prior research inputs (JTBD findings, heuristic eval findings, Design Sprint outputs), MCP status
Hypothesis Backlog	L1	Full hypothesis backlog with: hypothesis ID (HYP-{NNN}), Lean UX format statement, assumption category (value/usability/feasibility), status (DRAFT/ACTIVE/VALIDATED/INVALIDATED/DEFERRED), priority, linked experiment
Assumption Map	L1	4-quadrant assumption map with each assumption positioned in Q1-Q4, movement tracking between quadrants as evidence accumulates
Experiment Designs	L1	Per-hypothesis experiment design with: experiment type, description, duration estimate, sample size, success criteria (metric + threshold), measurement method
Validated Learning Log	L1	Chronological log of completed Build-Measure-Learn cycles with evidence, outcomes, and decisions (pivot/persevere/kill)
Strategic Implications	L2	Organizational learning patterns (hypothesis validation rate, common failure modes), experimentation maturity assessment, iteration velocity recommendations, product strategy implications
Synthesis Judgments Summary	L1	Each AI judgment call listed for synthesis confidence gate compliance (see note below)
Handoff Data	L1	Structured data for downstream sub-skills: hypothesis IDs, validated/invalidated status, metric implications (for HEART Metrics consumption)

Synthesis Judgments Summary requirements: This section MUST list every AI-generated judgment (assumption quadrant placement, hypothesis prioritization, experiment type recommendation) with a confidence classification (HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW) and a one-line rationale. This enables downstream consumers (including /ux-heart-metrics and the ux-orchestrator synthesis gate) to assess which findings are strongly supported versus which require additional validation. The format follows the Wave 1 synthesis judgments pattern established in skills/user-experience/rules/synthesis-validation.md.

Templates

Two templates support the agent's output production:

Template	Path	Purpose
Hypothesis Backlog Template	skills/ux-lean-ux/templates/hypothesis-backlog-template.md [PLANNED: Wave 2 Phase 2]	Lean UX hypothesis statement backlog with validation status tracking
Assumption Map Template	skills/ux-lean-ux/templates/assumption-map-template.md [PLANNED: Wave 2 Phase 2]	4-quadrant assumption mapping and prioritization worksheet

Source: Output location from [skills/user-experience/SKILL.md § Available Agents] and ORCHESTRATION.yaml pipeline-wave2 phase-1 artifacts (hypothesis-backlog-template.md, assumption-map-template.md).

---

Routing

Trigger Keywords

Keyword	Routing Context
lean UX	Direct match -- primary trigger
hypothesis-driven design	Direct match
assumption mapping	Direct match
build-measure-learn	Direct match
MVP experiment	Direct match
validated learning	Direct match
experiment design	In combination with UX/design context
hypothesis backlog	Direct match

Lifecycle-Stage Routing Integration

This sub-skill is routed to by the ux-orchestrator in the following lifecycle-stage scenarios:

Stage	User Intent	Route Condition
During design	"Iterating on existing design"	Qualification: "Testing hypotheses" (vs. "Evaluating existing interface" which routes to /ux-heuristic-eval); source: [ux-routing-rules.md § Stage Routing Table]
During design	Follow-up from Design Sprint	When /ux-design-sprint has completed with validated prototype; Design Sprint output feeds hypothesis generation
Any stage	"Test whether this change will work"	Hypothesis-driven intent detected; routes to Lean UX for experiment design

Wave Gating

This sub-skill is in Wave 2 (Data-Ready). It requires Wave 1 completion before deployment:

Entry criteria: Wave 1 at least 1 heuristic evaluation completed AND 1 JTBD job statement used in a product decision.

Bypass condition: 2 sprint cycles elapsed with no Wave 1 completion; documented rationale required (3-field documentation per [skills/user-experience/SKILL.md § Wave Architecture]).

Source: Routing integration from [skills/user-experience/rules/ux-routing-rules.md § Stage Routing Table] and [skills/user-experience/SKILL.md § Lifecycle-Stage Routing]. Wave assignment from [skills/user-experience/SKILL.md § Wave Architecture].

---

Cross-Framework Integration

Upstream Inputs

This sub-skill receives context from other sub-skills when invoked as part of a multi-sub-skill workflow:

From Sub-Skill	Handoff Artifact	Key Fields	Usage
/ux-design-sprint	Validated prototype + Day 4 findings	Prototype description, interview findings, validated/invalidated hypotheses	Day 4 interview findings seed the initial hypothesis backlog; validated prototype becomes the baseline for Lean UX iterations
/ux-jtbd	Job statements + switch forces	Job statement text, push/pull forces, hiring criteria	Job statements inform value assumptions; switch forces identify high-risk areas for hypothesis generation
/ux-heuristic-eval	Severity-rated findings	Finding ID, heuristic violated, severity (0-4), affected screen/flow	Heuristic findings with severity >= 2 inform usability assumptions; high-severity findings suggest hypothesis candidates for remediation experiments

Downstream Handoffs

This sub-skill produces artifacts that feed into other sub-skills via the Jerry handoff protocol (docs/schemas/handoff-v2.schema.json).

To Sub-Skill	Handoff Artifact	Key Fields	Trigger
/ux-heart-metrics	Validated/invalidated hypothesis backlog	Hypothesis ID, validated/invalidated status, metric implications	After experiment completion; HEART Metrics establishes ongoing measurement for validated hypotheses

Handoff threshold: Only hypotheses with status VALIDATED or INVALIDATED (i.e., those that have completed at least one Build-Measure-Learn cycle) are included in cross-framework handoffs. Hypotheses with status DRAFT, ACTIVE, or DEFERRED remain in the hypothesis backlog but are not propagated downstream.

Canonical Multi-Skill Workflow Sequences

This sub-skill participates in the following canonical sequences:

Sequence	Skills Involved	This Sub-Skill's Role
Sprint to Iterate to Measure	/ux-design-sprint then /ux-lean-ux then /ux-heart-metrics	Receives Design Sprint prototype; iterates through hypothesis cycles; feeds validated hypotheses to HEART Metrics
Evaluate to Iterate	/ux-heuristic-eval then /ux-lean-ux	Heuristic findings generate remediation hypotheses; Lean UX designs experiments to test fixes

Source: Handoff data contracts from [skills/user-experience/rules/ux-routing-rules.md § Handoff Data Contracts] and [skills/user-experience/SKILL.md § Cross-Sub-Skill Handoff Data] ("/ux-design-sprint -> /ux-lean-ux: Validated prototype + Day 4 findings" and "/ux-lean-ux -> /ux-heart-metrics: Validated/invalidated hypothesis backlog"). Canonical sequences from [skills/user-experience/SKILL.md § Canonical Multi-Skill Workflow Sequences].

---

Synthesis Hypothesis Confidence

Lean UX outputs include synthesis hypotheses that carry confidence classifications per the synthesis validation protocol.

Synthesis Step	Typical Confidence	Rationale
Assumption mapping	MEDIUM	Assumptions are deliberately unvalidated per Lean UX methodology; the purpose of mapping is to identify what needs testing, not to assert validity
Hypothesis generation	MEDIUM	Hypotheses are by definition unproven propositions; Lean UX methodology (Gothelf & Seiden, 2021) treats them as starting points for experimentation, not conclusions

Gate enforcement:

• MEDIUM outputs: Include a "Validation Required" section. Design recommendations are withheld until validation against real experiment data or expert review is provided. Assumption maps and hypothesis backlogs serve as structured starting points, not validated findings.

Note on confidence dynamics: Lean UX outputs are intentionally MEDIUM confidence because the methodology's entire purpose is to generate testable propositions. Confidence increases only when a hypothesis completes a Build-Measure-Learn cycle and transitions to VALIDATED status with supporting experiment evidence. Even then, individual hypothesis validation produces MEDIUM synthesis confidence (single-framework finding); HIGH synthesis confidence requires convergence with a second framework (e.g., HEART Metrics confirms the validated hypothesis with quantitative measurement).

Source: Confidence classifications from [skills/user-experience/rules/synthesis-validation.md § Sub-Skill Synthesis Output Map] ("/ux-lean-ux Assumption mapping; hypothesis generation MEDIUM"). Gate enforcement from [skills/user-experience/SKILL.md § Synthesis Hypothesis Validation].

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Constitutional Compliance

All agents in this sub-skill adhere to the Jerry Constitution v1.0:

Principle	Requirement	Consequence of Violation
P-003	NEVER spawn recursive subagents -- worker agent, no Task tool access	Agent hierarchy violation; uncontrolled token consumption
P-020	NEVER override user decisions on hypothesis priority or experiment selection	Unauthorized action; trust erosion
P-022	NEVER present hypotheses as validated without experiment evidence; NEVER inflate experiment confidence without data	Governance undermined; quality assessment invalidated
P-001	NEVER present assumption classifications without reasoning for the quadrant placement	Unreliable outputs; unfounded claims propagate downstream
P-002	NEVER leave hypothesis backlog or experiment designs in transient context only -- persist to files	Context rot vulnerability; artifacts lost on session compaction

Per-agent enforcement: The ux-lean-ux-facilitator agent declares:

• constitution.principles_applied: P-003, P-020, P-022, P-001, P-002 in skills/ux-lean-ux/agents/ux-lean-ux-facilitator.governance.yaml
• capabilities.forbidden_actions: 3 entries in NPT-009 format referencing the constitutional triplet
• disallowedTools: [Task] in skills/ux-lean-ux/agents/ux-lean-ux-facilitator.md frontmatter

AI-Augmented Analysis Limitations

The Lean UX facilitator agent operates as an AI-augmented analysis tool. The following limitations apply to all outputs and MUST be disclosed per P-022 (no deception):

• Hypotheses are secondary-research-derived. Lean UX hypotheses generated by the AI are based on secondary research, design pattern knowledge, and provided context -- not direct user observation. They are structured starting points for experimentation, not empirically grounded predictions.
• Experiment interpretation is data-dependent. Experiment results are interpreted from user-provided data (metrics, observations, reports), not from direct measurement by the agent. The quality of the "Learn" phase depends entirely on the quality and completeness of the data provided.
• Assumption mapping reflects AI judgment. Quadrant placements (Q1-Q4) are AI assessments based on available information. Real-world risk and knowledge levels may differ from AI-estimated positions.
• Always validate with real user data. Hypothesis validation, assumption mapping, and experiment design outputs should be confirmed through actual user research, behavioral analytics, and empirical measurement before making irreversible product decisions.

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Registration

This sub-skill follows a parent-routed registration model. Sub-skills are not independently registered in CLAUDE.md or mandatory-skill-usage.md because they are routed through the parent /user-experience orchestrator (ux-orchestrator). This is an explicit exception to the H-26 registration requirement (parent-routed model): parent skills own the CLAUDE.md and mandatory-skill-usage.md registration; sub-skills are discovered and dispatched by the parent orchestrator's internal routing logic.

Registration Point	Status	Detail
CLAUDE.md skill table	Registered via parent	/user-experience is registered in CLAUDE.md; sub-skills are not independently listed
mandatory-skill-usage.md trigger map	Routed via parent	The /user-experience trigger map row includes "lean UX" as a positive keyword (H-22); requests matching this keyword route to the parent skill, which dispatches to this sub-skill
AGENTS.md agent registry	Registered	ux-lean-ux-facilitator is listed in AGENTS.md under the User-Experience Skill Agents section
Parent SKILL.md agent table	Registered	ux-lean-ux-facilitator is listed in skills/user-experience/SKILL.md [Available Agents]

H-26 parent-routed model rationale: Independent registration of sub-skills would create duplicate trigger map entries and ambiguous routing (AP-02 Bag of Triggers). The parent orchestrator owns lifecycle-stage routing logic and dispatches to the correct sub-skill based on triage qualification, not keyword matching alone. Sub-skill agents are registered in AGENTS.md for discoverability but routing flows through the parent.

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Deployment Status

Wave 2 Sub-Skill -- Stub Agent. This sub-skill is part of Wave 2 (Data-Ready) of PROJ-022. The companion agent file (skills/ux-lean-ux/agents/ux-lean-ux-facilitator.md) is currently a stub -- it contains frontmatter, identity, purpose, and guardrails sections but lacks full <input>, <capabilities>, <methodology>, and <output> sections. Full agent implementation is pending Wave 2 completion of PROJ-022 EPIC-003. The SKILL.md itself is complete and specifies the methodology, output format, and routing integration that the agent will implement.

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Quick Reference

Common Workflows

Need	Command Example
Create hypotheses for a design change	"Help me create hypotheses for the checkout redesign"
Map assumptions	"Map our riskiest assumptions about the new onboarding flow"
Design an experiment	"Design an experiment to test whether single-page checkout improves conversion"
Document validated learning	"Document what we learned from the A/B test on the pricing page"
Review hypothesis backlog	"Review the hypothesis backlog for the mobile app redesign"
Post-sprint iteration	"We completed a Design Sprint -- help us iterate on the validated prototype"

Agent Selection Hints

Keywords	Routes To
hypothesis, lean UX, assumption, experiment, build-measure-learn, validated learning, MVP	ux-lean-ux-facilitator
heuristic, usability, Nielsen, severity, inspection, evaluation	/ux-heuristic-eval (not this sub-skill)
HEART, metrics, measurement, GSM, happiness, engagement	/ux-heart-metrics (not this sub-skill)
jobs to be done, JTBD, switch interview, user motivation	/ux-jtbd (not this sub-skill)
design sprint, rapid prototyping, 4-day sprint	/ux-design-sprint (not this sub-skill)

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References

Source	Content	Path
Parent SKILL.md	Sub-skill scope, wave architecture, routing, MCP dependencies, synthesis protocol	skills/user-experience/SKILL.md
Agent definition	Agent frontmatter, identity, expertise, guardrails	skills/ux-lean-ux/agents/ux-lean-ux-facilitator.md
Agent governance	Tool tier, forbidden actions, output validation, constitutional compliance	skills/ux-lean-ux/agents/ux-lean-ux-facilitator.governance.yaml
UX routing rules	Lifecycle-stage routing, handoff data contracts, common intent resolution	skills/user-experience/rules/ux-routing-rules.md
MCP coordination	Miro REQ dependency, degraded mode behavior, Context7 usage	skills/user-experience/rules/mcp-coordination.md
Synthesis validation	Confidence gate protocol, per-sub-skill confidence map	skills/user-experience/rules/synthesis-validation.md
Wave progression	Wave 2 entry criteria, signoff requirements	skills/user-experience/rules/wave-progression.md
CI checks	P-003 enforcement, sub-skill validation gates	skills/user-experience/rules/ci-checks.md
Lean UX methodology rules	Build-Measure-Learn cycle rules, hypothesis format validation	skills/ux-lean-ux/rules/lean-ux-methodology-rules.md [PLANNED: Wave 2 Phase 2]
MCP runbook	Miro integration operational procedures	skills/ux-lean-ux/rules/mcp-runbook.md [PLANNED: Wave 2 Phase 2]
Hypothesis backlog template	Hypothesis statement backlog with validation status	skills/ux-lean-ux/templates/hypothesis-backlog-template.md [PLANNED: Wave 2 Phase 2]
Assumption map template	4-quadrant assumption mapping worksheet	skills/ux-lean-ux/templates/assumption-map-template.md [PLANNED: Wave 2 Phase 2]
Skill standards	H-25/H-26 skill structure requirements	.context/rules/skill-standards.md
Agent development standards	H-34 dual-file architecture, tool tiers, handoff protocol	.context/rules/agent-development-standards.md
Quality enforcement	Quality gate thresholds, criticality levels, strategy catalog	.context/rules/quality-enforcement.md
Handoff schema	Canonical handoff schema v2	docs/schemas/handoff-v2.schema.json
Agent governance schema	Governance YAML validation schema	docs/schemas/agent-governance-v1.schema.json

Requirements Traceability

Source	Content	Path
PROJ-022 PLAN.md	Project plan: sub-skill scope, wave assignment, acceptance criteria, implementation phases	projects/PROJ-022-user-experience-skill/PLAN.md
EPIC-003 (Wave 2 Deployment)	Parent work item for Wave 2 sub-skill implementation including this sub-skill	PROJ-022 EPIC-003 in projects/PROJ-022-user-experience-skill/WORKTRACKER.md
FEAT-009	Feature entity for /ux-lean-ux sub-skill within EPIC-003	PROJ-022 FEAT-009 in ORCHESTRATION_WORKTRACKER.md
ORCHESTRATION.yaml	Orchestration plan governing the build sequence for this sub-skill	projects/PROJ-022-user-experience-skill/orchestration/ux-skill-build-20260303-001/ORCHESTRATION.yaml

External References

Source	Citation
Gothelf, J. & Seiden, J. (2021)	"Lean UX: Applying Lean Principles to Improve User Experience." 3rd ed. O'Reilly.
Ries, E. (2011)	"The Lean Startup: How Today's Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses." Crown Business. Build-Measure-Learn cycle origin.
Bland, D. & Osterwalder, A. (2019)	"Testing Business Ideas: A Field Guide for Rapid Experimentation." Wiley. Experiment type catalog.

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Sub-Skill Version: 1.2.0
Parent Skill: /user-experience v1.0.0
Constitutional Compliance: Jerry Constitution v1.0
Wave: 2 (Data-Ready)
SSOT: skills/user-experience/SKILL.md
Project: PROJ-022 User Experience Skill
Created: 2026-03-04