bet-sizing
Evaluate product bets and shape pitches using Shape Up's appetite model and Bezos's Type 1/Type 2 decision framework. Use when asked to assess a product bet, evaluate initiative risk, decide resource allocation, or shape a pitch for a new feature or project.
Install
npx skillscat add assimovt/productskills/bet-sizing Install via the SkillsCat registry.
The bet-sizing skill helps teams assess product bets by distinguishing reversible (Type 2) from irreversible (Type 1) decisions and allocating resources accordingly. It guides shaping pitches within defined time appetites to ensure effort matches risk and impact. Use it when evaluating initiative risk, deciding resource allocation, or preparing a pitch for a new feature or project.
Size product bets by separating reversible from irreversible decisions and shaping work to fit an appetite. Most product bets are Type 2 decisions — reversible, low-cost to try, high-cost to deliberate. Move fast on those. Save deliberation for Type 1 decisions that are hard to undo.
Type 1 vs Type 2 Decisions (Bezos)
Type 1 (Irreversible): One-way doors. Hard to undo once committed.
- Choosing a core technology/platform
- Pricing model changes that affect existing customers
- Killing a product line
- Public commitments (partnerships, integrations)
Type 2 (Reversible): Two-way doors. Easy to undo or iterate.
- Most new features (can ship, measure, remove)
- UI/UX changes (can A/B test or revert)
- Internal tooling decisions
- Most API additions (harder to remove, but additive is safer)
Rule: Use lightweight process for Type 2. Use deliberate process for Type 1. Most product teams over-process Type 2 decisions and under-process Type 1 decisions.
Shape Up Pitch Format
When proposing a bet, structure it as a Shape Up pitch:
1. Problem
A specific story showing real pain. Not an abstract need — a concrete situation with a real user.
"When a PM finishes a customer interview, they spend 45 minutes transcribing notes into a PRD. By the time they're done, the emotional context is gone and the PRD reads like a requirements list."
2. Appetite
How much time is this worth? Not how long it will take — how much you're willing to invest.
- Small bet: 1-2 weeks
- Medium bet: 3-4 weeks
- Large bet: 6 weeks (maximum for Shape Up)
If you can't fit the solution in the appetite, reshape or kill it.
3. Solution
Breadboard-level, not pixel-perfect. Show the key interactions and flows without getting into visual design. Fat-marker sketches, flow diagrams, or written walkthroughs.
4. Rabbit Holes
Known risks and unknowns that could blow up the timeline. For each: what's the risk and how will you mitigate it?
5. No-Gos
What's explicitly excluded. This is as important as what's included — it prevents scope creep during execution.
Expected Value Assessment
For larger bets, estimate expected value:
EV = (Upside x P(success)) - (Downside x P(failure)) + Learning Value
- Upside: Best-case outcome (metric improvement, revenue, users)
- P(success): Probability it works (be honest — most features have 30-50% success rate)
- Downside: Cost if it fails (time, opportunity cost, technical debt)
- Learning value: What you'll learn even if it fails. High learning value makes negative-EV bets worthwhile for early-stage products.
Guidelines
- CRITICAL: Classify every decision as Type 1 or Type 2 before deciding how much process to apply.
- NEVER spend 6 weeks deliberating a Type 2 decision. Ship it, measure it, adjust.
- NEVER rush a Type 1 decision because of artificial urgency. These are worth slowing down for.
- ALWAYS include No-Gos in a pitch. Without explicit exclusions, scope will grow.
- ALWAYS include Rabbit Holes. The risks you name are less dangerous than the ones you don't.
- NEVER pitch without a stated appetite. "Build this" without a time budget is an open invitation to over-engineer.
Built on Shape Up (Basecamp) and Jeff Bezos's Type 1/Type 2 decision framework. Skills from productskills.