Product Strategy

This skill produces decision-focused product strategy. It structures ambiguous direction into concrete bets, forces trade-offs, and grounds decisions in user outcomes — not feature lists or roadmap theater.

Core Philosophy

Strategy is choosing what NOT to do.

A great strategy in 2025:

• Names one North Star that the whole team can test decisions against
• Makes explicit bets with explicit trade-offs (including the "do nothing" option)
• Is grounded in user Jobs-to-be-Done, not stakeholder opinions
• Is short enough to be read in 5 minutes, specific enough to reject a feature proposal

The fatal flaw of bad strategies: They list everything as a priority. "Improve retention, grow acquisition, expand to enterprise" is a vision board, not a strategy.

When to use this skill

• Before setting quarterly OKRs (what are we actually betting on?)
• When the roadmap has too many competing priorities
• When entering a new product area or user segment
• When stakeholders disagree on direction and you need a decision framework
• When writing a strategy doc for exec review or team alignment
• When you have user research but no clear strategic narrative

Key Principles

1. One North Star — One metric that captures value creation for users. Everything else is an input metric.
2. Outcomes over outputs — Bets are framed as user outcomes, not features shipped.
3. Explicit non-priorities — What you won't do is as important as what you will.
4. Three bets, not one — Always compare at least three paths including "do nothing."
5. Time-boxed — Strategy is valid for a specific time horizon (quarter, half, year). State it.

Workflow

Step 1: Context Loading

Before proposing anything, read:

• Existing strategy docs or roadmap artifacts (ask user to share if not in repo)
• Recent metrics or growth data (ask for key numbers)
• User research or discovery findings (link to docs/discovery/ if exists)

Ask the user:

"What's the time horizon for this strategy? (quarter / half / year) And what's the core question this strategy needs to answer?"

Step 2: North Star Definition

Define ONE North Star Metric:

• It measures value delivered to users (not revenue, not engagement for its own sake)
• It's a lagging indicator — something that moves slowly but meaningfully
• Everyone on the team can influence it

Format:

North Star: [Metric name]
Definition: [Exact measurement — what counts, what doesn't]
Current: [Current value]
Target: [Target for this time horizon]
Why this: [One sentence — why this metric represents real user value]

Then define 3-5 Input Metrics (leading indicators that drive the North Star):

Input Metrics:
1. [Metric] → How it drives North Star: [one line]
2. [Metric] → How it drives North Star: [one line]
3. [Metric] → How it drives North Star: [one line]

Step 3: Opportunity Mapping

Map the Opportunity Tree (Teresa Torres framework):

Desired Outcome (North Star)
├── Opportunity 1: [Job-to-be-Done users struggle with]
│   ├── Solution A
│   └── Solution B
├── Opportunity 2: [Another unmet need]
│   ├── Solution C
│   └── Solution D
└── Opportunity 3: [Another unmet need]
    └── Solution E

Prioritize opportunities using two axes:

• Importance: How critical is this job to the user? (1-5)
• Satisfaction: How well does the current solution serve this job? (1-5)

Priority score = Importance + (Importance - Satisfaction)
→ High importance + low satisfaction = highest priority

Step 3b: Competitive Context (Optional)

Use these frameworks when entering a competitive market or when stakeholders need strategic grounding before selecting bets. Pick the one that fits — you don't need all three.

SWOT — Internal + External Situation Assessment
Use when: entering a new area, responding to competitive pressure, or when bets need exec-level justification.

	Helpful	Harmful
Internal	Strengths: what we do better today	Weaknesses: honest gaps (resources, capability, coverage)
External	Opportunities: market/user trends to exploit	Threats: competitive moves, regulation, shifts that undermine bets

→ Bets should leverage Strengths + Opportunities. Flag bets that depend on eliminating a Weakness.

Porter's 5 Forces — Competitive Intensity Assessment
Use when: evaluating a new market or product area before committing.

Force	Assessment (Low / Med / High)	Strategic implication
Threat of new entrants
Buyer bargaining power
Supplier bargaining power
Threat of substitutes
Competitive rivalry

→ High rivalry + low switching cost = bet must differentiate sharply. Low buyer power = retention investment pays more than acquisition.

Ansoff Matrix — Growth Strategy
Use when: a bet involves market or product expansion beyond the core.

	Existing Products	New Products
Existing Markets	Market Penetration (lowest risk)	Product Development
New Markets	Market Development	Diversification (highest risk)

→ Name which quadrant each bet falls in. Bets in "New Markets + New Products" require 10x the evidence before committing.

---

Step 4: Bet Selection

Present exactly 3 bets with trade-offs:

## Bet A: [Name]
What: [One sentence on the bet]
Opportunity it addresses: [Link to Opportunity Tree]
Evidence: [User research, data, or analogies that support this]
Expected outcome: [Specific, measurable — ties to input metrics]
Resources required: [Rough team/time investment]
Risks: [What could go wrong]
Non-goals this creates: [What we explicitly defer]

## Bet B: [Name]
[Same format]

## Bet C: Do Nothing (status quo)
What: Continue current trajectory without new investment
Expected outcome: [Where will metrics trend without action?]
Risk of inaction: [What's the cost of waiting?]

Then state the recommendation:

## Recommended Bet: [A/B/C]
Rationale: [2-3 sentences. Reference evidence, trade-offs, and strategic fit]
Key assumption: [The one thing that must be true for this bet to pay off]
First signal of progress: [What will you see in 4-6 weeks if this is working?]

Step 5: OKRs (Optional — if user needs them)

Translate the chosen bet into OKRs:

## Objective: [Ambitious, qualitative direction — one sentence]

Key Result 1: [Specific, measurable, time-bound — ties to North Star or input metric]
Key Result 2: [Another specific KR]
Key Result 3: [Another specific KR]

Initiatives (not KRs — these are the "how"):
- [Initiative 1] → Expected to move KR [X] by [Y]
- [Initiative 2] → Expected to move KR [X] by [Y]

OKR quality rules:

• Objectives should be inspirational enough that you're slightly uncomfortable committing
• Key Results have specific numbers and dates — not "increase retention" but "increase D30 retention from 42% to 48% by end of Q2"
• Initiatives are how you'll try to hit KRs — they can be updated; KRs should not

Step 6: Output

Save the strategy doc:

docs/strategy/YYYY-MM-DD-[product-area]-strategy.md

Include a one-page summary at the top:

## TL;DR (for exec review)
North Star: [Metric] — current [X], target [Y] by [date]
Chosen bet: [Name in one sentence]
Key assumption: [One sentence]
First signal: [What we'll see in 4-6 weeks]
What we're NOT doing: [3 bullet points]

Output Format

# [Product Area] Strategy — [Time Horizon]

**Owner:** [Name]
**Status:** Draft / Reviewed / Approved
**Last Updated:** [Date]

## TL;DR
[One-page summary — North Star, chosen bet, key assumption, non-priorities]

## Context
[2-3 sentences on the current state and what prompted this strategy work]

## North Star
[Metric, definition, current, target, why]

## Input Metrics
[3-5 leading indicators with causal links to North Star]

## Opportunity Tree
[Mapped opportunities with priority scores]

## The Bets
[Bet A, Bet B, Bet C: Do Nothing — with trade-offs]

## Recommendation
[Chosen bet + rationale + key assumption + first signal]

## OKRs (if applicable)
[Objective + Key Results + Initiatives]

## What We're NOT Doing
[Explicit non-priorities for this time horizon]

## Open Questions
[What we still need to resolve, with owners]

Quality Checklist

Before considering the strategy complete:

Direction

• North Star is a single metric that measures user value (not vanity)
• Input metrics have causal links to North Star, not correlation
• Time horizon is explicit

Rigor

• Three bets presented, including "do nothing"
• Each bet has expected outcome tied to specific metrics
• Opportunity Tree links bets to user Jobs-to-be-Done

Decisions

• One bet is recommended, not "it depends"
• Key assumption is named (what must be true for this to work)
• Non-priorities are explicit (at least 3 things we won't do)

Actionability

• Engineering knows what the first milestone looks like
• First signal of progress is defined (what we'll see in 4-6 weeks)
• OKRs (if included) have specific numbers and dates

Common Antipatterns

Antipattern 1: Everything is a Priority

Symptom: Roadmap has 12 initiatives all labeled "High Priority"
Fix: Force ranking. Only the top 3 get resources. Everything else is explicitly deferred.

Antipattern 2: Feature-Led Strategy

Symptom: "Our strategy is to ship X, Y, and Z features this quarter"
Fix: Reframe as outcomes. "Our strategy is to improve job completion rate for [user segment] from X% to Y%." Features are means, not ends.

Antipattern 3: Strategy Without Trade-offs

Symptom: The strategy doesn't explain what you're NOT doing
Fix: Add "What We're NOT Doing" section. If nothing is deferred, it's not a strategy.

Antipattern 4: Vanity North Star

Symptom: North Star is DAU, MAU, or revenue — things that can go up while user value goes down
Fix: Ask "can this metric go up even if users are getting less value?" If yes, it's the wrong North Star.

Antipattern 5: One-and-Done

Symptom: Strategy written at start of quarter, never revisited
Fix: Review strategy monthly. If the key assumption has been proven wrong, update the bet.

Reference Resources

• references/strategy-template.md — Complete strategy doc template with examples
• references/frameworks.md — Opportunity Tree, OKRs, JTBD, Positioning frameworks in detail